Job Market Paper

Who did the ACA Medicaid Expansion Impact? Estimating the Probability of Being a Complier [Forthcoming: Health Economics] 

Abstract: Who enrolled in Medicaid as a consequence of the Affordable Care Act (ACA)? Using the 2010–2017 American Community Survey, I estimate how characteristics relating to work status and race/ethnicity affect the probability that an individual will be a complier, defined as those induced by the ACA Medicaid expansion to obtain Medicaid coverage. Across all states, I find that part-time workers, not non-workers, are the most likely to be compliers. This finding is not consistent with certain notions that Medicaid participants are the "undeserving poor" - a sentiment that may have hindered efforts to expand Medicaid in certain states.  Additionally, I find that in non-expansion states, many of which have high Black populations, the probability of being a complier is higher for Blacks than for other racial/ethnic groups suggesting that Black people in non-expansion would be the largest beneficiaries of any new expansions. This paper not only identifies the types of individuals who were already impacted by the expansion but also identifies which populations would benefit the most from subsequent expansions.

Working Papers

Laying Down the Welcome Mat: The Impact of the ACA Medicaid Expansion on Health Coverage for Previously Eligible Children (Link)

AbstractIn this paper, I estimate the effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion on health coverage among families with children who were previously eligible for Medicaid prior to the expansion. I utilize the American Community Survey (ACS) from 2012 to 2017 and adopt a difference-in-differences approach that measures the changes in health coverage for Medicaid/CHIP eligible children before and after the ACA Medicaid expansion. I find that there are modest yet significant increases in public coverage across all years for children who were previously eligible for Medicaid and CHIP prior to the expansion, providing evidence of a "welcome mat" effect. However, I observe significant crowding out in employer-sponsored insurance for children who were previously eligible as well as children who became newly eligible under the new adjusted gross income (MAGI) thresholds established after 2014.

Works In Progress